The Beginning of Technical Analysis

At the turn of the century, the Dow Theory laid the foundations for what was later to become modern technical analysis. Dow Theory was not presented as one complete amalgamation, but rather pieced together from the writings of Charles Dow over several years.

Technical analysts believe that the current price fully reflects all information. Because all information is already reflected in the price, it represents the fair value and should form the basis for analysis. After all, the market price reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, including traders, investors, portfolio managers, market strategist, technical analysts, fundamental analysts and many others. It would be folly to disagree with the price set by such an impressive array of people with impeccable credentials. Technical analysis utilizes the information captured by the price to interpret what the market is saying with the purpose of forming a view on the future.

A technician believes that it is possible to identify a trend, and market turning points, invest or trade based on the trend and make money as the trend, or turning points unfolds. Because technical analysis can be applied to many different timeframes, it is possible to spot both short-term and long-term trends.

The IBM chart below illustrates a view on the nature of the trend. The broad trend is up, but it is also interspersed with trading ranges. In between the trading ranges are smaller uptrends within the larger uptrend. The uptrend is renewed when the stock or commodity breaks above the trading range. A downtrend begins when the stock or commodity breaks below the low of the previous trading range.